{"id":8540,"date":"2026-07-27T18:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-07-27T10:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/meta-quantum.today\/?p=8540"},"modified":"2026-07-27T18:02:55","modified_gmt":"2026-07-27T10:02:55","slug":"%e6%9d%a8%e8%8d%a3%e6%96%87%e8%b0%88%e5%8f%b0%e6%b9%be-%e9%a6%99%e6%b8%af-%e5%8d%b0%e5%b7%b4%e6%b0%b4%e8%b5%84%e6%ba%90%e6%88%98-ai-deepseek-george-yeo-taiwan-hong-kong-water-resource-war-be","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/meta-quantum.today\/?p=8540","title":{"rendered":"\u6768\u8363\u6587\u8c08\u53f0\u6e7e, \u9999\u6e2f, \u5370\u5df4\u6c34\u8d44\u6e90\u6218, AI &#8211; DeepSeek | George Yeo: Taiwan, Hong Kong, water resource war between India and Pakistan and AI &#8211; DeepSeek."},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5f15\u8a00 | Introduction<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u4e2d\u6587\uff1a<\/strong><br>\u8fd9\u671f\u8bbf\u8c08\u7684\u5609\u5bbe\u662f\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u524d\u5916\u4ea4\u90e8\u957f\u6768\u8363\u6587\uff08George Yeo\uff09\u2014\u2014\u4e00\u4f4d\u6a2a\u8de8\u519b\u4eba\u3001\u90e8\u957f\u3001\u5916\u4ea4\u5b98\u4e0e\u4f01\u4e1a\u987e\u95ee\u591a\u91cd\u8eab\u4efd\u7684\u8d44\u6df1\u653f\u6cbb\u4eba\u7269\u3002\u4ed6\u66fe\u57281990\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u4eb2\u5386\u4e2d\u7f8e\u5efa\u4ea4\u524d\u540e\u7684\u5173\u952e\u5916\u4ea4\u573a\u5408\uff0c\u957f\u671f\u62c5\u4efb\u534e\u4e3a\u7684\u987e\u95ee\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u957f\u671f\u89c2\u5bdf\u4e2d\u56fd\u3001\u4e1c\u76df\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e09\u8fb9\u5173\u7cfb\u7684&#8221;\u8001\u53cb&#8221;\u578b\u8bc4\u8bba\u5458\u3002\u6574\u573a\u5bf9\u8bdd\u4fe1\u606f\u5bc6\u5ea6\u6781\u9ad8\uff0c\u4ece\u53f0\u6e7e\u95ee\u9898\u3001\u9999\u6e2f\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u8c08\u5230\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u56de\u5408\u3001\u6e44\u516c\u6cb3\u6d41\u57df\u7684\u6c34\u8d44\u6e90\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u671d\u8d21\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u8bef\u8bfb\uff0c\u518d\u5230DeepSeek\u5f00\u6e90\u7b56\u7565\u4e0e\u591a\u6781\u4e16\u754c\u7684&#8221;\u4e09\u4e2a\u592a\u9633&#8221;\u6bd4\u55bb\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u8986\u76d6\u4e86\u7406\u89e3\u5f53\u4ee3\u4e1c\u4e9a\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u6240\u9700\u7684\u5168\u90e8\u5173\u952e\u8bcd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>English:<\/strong><br>This interview features George Yeo, Singapore&#8217;s former Foreign Minister \u2014 a man who has worn the hats of air force general, cabinet minister, diplomat, and corporate advisor (notably to Huawei). Having personally taken notes in closed-door meetings between Chinese and American leaders back in 1990\u201391, Yeo brings a rare insider&#8217;s perspective to a conversation that ranges across the Taiwan question, the Hong Kong precedent, two rounds of the US-China trade war, Mekong River water politics, a historical reinterpretation of the tributary system, China&#8217;s DeepSeek open-source strategy, and his &#8220;three suns&#8221; metaphor for a multipolar world. It&#8217;s a dense, wide-ranging conversation \u2014 essential listening for anyone trying to make sense of today&#8217;s East Asian geopolitics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"\u5982\u679c\u88ab\u8feb\u7edf\u4e00\uff0c10%\u7684\u4eba\u4f1a\u79bb\u5f00\u53f0\u6e7e\uff0c\u6768\u8363\u6587\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ece\u672a\u4e8f\u5f85\u8fc7\u9999\u6e2f\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Lri6tgANizs?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6838\u5fc3\u89c2\u70b9 | Core Concept<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u4e2d\u6587\uff1a<\/strong><br>\u8d2f\u7a7f\u5168\u573a\u8bbf\u8c08\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u8bba\u70b9\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u6768\u8363\u6587\u5bf9&#8221;\u4e2d\u56fd\u6cbb\u56fd\u672f&#8221;\uff08Chinese statecraft\uff09\u7684\u4e00\u5957\u89e3\u91ca\u6846\u67b6\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6218\u7565\u6587\u5316\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u662f<strong>\u9632\u5fa1\u6027<\/strong>\u7684\uff0c\u5176\u6839\u6e90\u6765\u81ea\u300a\u5b59\u5b50\u5175\u6cd5\u300b&#8221;\u4e0d\u6218\u800c\u5c48\u4eba\u4e4b\u5175&#8221;\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u2014\u2014\u5c3d\u91cf\u907f\u514d\u52a8\u7528\u519b\u4e8b\u529b\u91cf\uff0c\u4f18\u5148\u4f7f\u7528\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0e\u5916\u4ea4\u624b\u6bb5\u5b9e\u73b0\u76ee\u6807\u3002\u4ed6\u7528&#8221;\u68cb\u5b50 vs. \u68cb\u624b&#8221;\u7684\u6bd4\u55bb\u8d2f\u7a7f\u4e86\u5bf9\u53f0\u6e7e\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\uff1a\u53f0\u6e7e\u4eba\u53ef\u4ee5\u9009\u62e9\u505a\u88ab\u727a\u7272\u7684&#8221;\u5352\u5b50&#8221;\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u9009\u62e9\u6210\u4e3a\u80fd\u5851\u9020\u81ea\u5df1\u547d\u8fd0\u7684&#8221;\u8f66&#8221;\u6216&#8221;\u8c61&#8221;\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6846\u67b6\u540c\u6837\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u7406\u89e3\u9999\u6e2f\u3001\u4e1c\u76df\u3001\u4e43\u81f3\u4e2d\u7f8e\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>English:<\/strong><br>The thread running through the entire conversation is George Yeo&#8217;s interpretive framework for <strong>Chinese statecraft<\/strong>: he argues Chinese strategic culture is fundamentally <strong>defensive<\/strong>, rooted in Sun Tzu&#8217;s principle of &#8220;subduing the enemy without fighting&#8221; \u2014 favoring economic and diplomatic leverage over military force wherever possible. His central metaphor for Taiwan is a chess one: Taiwanese people can choose to remain a pawn that gets sacrificed, or become a rook or bishop that shapes its own fate. This same lens \u2014 defensive, relationship-based, face-conscious \u2014 is what he applies to Hong Kong, ASEAN, and the US-China relationship throughout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u76f8\u5173\u4e3b\u9898\u6df1\u5ea6\u89e3\u6790 | Related Sections<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. \u53f0\u6e7e\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u5bb6\u4eba\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u68cb\u5b50 | Taiwan: Family, Not a Pawn<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u4e2d\u6587\uff1a<\/strong><br>\u6768\u8363\u6587\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u82e5\u53d1\u751f\u5f3a\u5236\u7edf\u4e00\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u67095%\u523010%\u7684\u53f0\u6e7e\u4eba\u4f1a\u9009\u62e9\u79bb\u5f00\uff0c\u5176\u4f59\u7684\u4eba\u4f1a\u7559\u4e0b\u5e76\u9010\u6e10\u9002\u5e94\u2014\u2014\u4ed6\u76f4\u63a5\u7c7b\u6bd4\u9999\u6e2f\uff1a\u81ea2020\u5e74\u56fd\u5b89\u6cd5\u5b9e\u65bd\u540e\uff0c\u7ea630\u4e07\u9999\u6e2f\u5c45\u6c11\u79bb\u5f00\u4e86\u8fd9\u5ea7\u57ce\u5e02\uff0c\u4f46\u7559\u4e0b\u7684\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u751f\u6d3b\u7167\u5e38\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4e0d\u5c11\u5927\u9646\u6e38\u5ba2\u53cd\u800c\u89c9\u5f97\u9999\u6e2f\u4eba\u5982\u4eca&#8221;\u5f85\u5ba2\u66f4\u53cb\u5584&#8221;\u3002\u4ed6\u7279\u522b\u8c08\u5230\u81ea\u5df1\u513f\u5b50\u66fe\u60a3\u767d\u8840\u75c5\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u9aa8\u9ad3\u914d\u578b\u6765\u81ea\u53f0\u6e7e\u6350\u8d60\u8005\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4ed6\u5e38\u5bf9\u53f0\u6e7e\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u8bf4&#8221;\u6211\u513f\u5b50\u7684\u8840\u662f\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684\u8840&#8221;\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u4ed6\u5bf9\u53f0\u6e7e\u62b1\u6709\u6df1\u539a\u60c5\u611f\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5efa\u8bae\u662f\uff1a\u5927\u9646\u4e0d\u5e94\u628a\u53f0\u6e7e\u5f53\u4f5c&#8221;\u9762\u5b50\u95ee\u9898&#8221;\u6216\u5f3a\u884c\u7d22\u56de\u7684&#8221;\u79bb\u5bb6\u51fa\u8d70\u7684\u513f\u5b50&#8221;\uff0c\u800c\u5e94\u8be5\u50cf\u5bf9\u5f85\u5373\u5c06\u56de\u5f52\u7684\u5bb6\u4eba\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u7ed9\u4e88\u8010\u5fc3\u3001\u7406\u89e3\u4e0e\u5c0a\u91cd\u2014\u2014\u56e0\u4e3a&#8221;\u5373\u4f7f\u6293\u56de\u6765\u4e86\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6c89\u9ed8\u800c\u4e0d\u5feb\u4e50\u7684\u513f\u5b50\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bf9\u6574\u4e2a\u5bb6\u5ead\u90fd\u4e0d\u597d&#8221;\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>English:<\/strong><br>George Yeo estimates that if forced reunification occurred, perhaps 5-10% of Taiwan&#8217;s population would leave, while the rest would stay and adapt \u2014 drawing a direct parallel to Hong Kong, where roughly 300,000 residents left after the National Security Law, yet most who stayed carried on, and mainland visitors today often find Hongkongers friendlier than before. He shares a deeply personal detail: his own son survived leukemia thanks to a bone marrow donor found in Taiwan, which is why he tells Taiwanese leaders &#8220;my son&#8217;s blood is Taiwanese blood.&#8221; His policy advice to Beijing is to treat Taiwan not as a matter of pride or a &#8220;runaway son&#8221; to be forcibly dragged home, but with the patience of a parent trying to genuinely win back a child \u2014 because &#8220;even if you capture him, he&#8217;ll come home silent and unhappy, and that poisons the whole family.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. \u9999\u6e2f\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u542f\u793a | The Hong Kong Precedent<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u4e2d\u6587\uff1a<\/strong><br>\u6768\u8363\u6587\u7279\u522b\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u9999\u6e2f\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e0e\u5916\u754c\u7684\u523b\u677f\u5370\u8c61\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u51fa\u5165\u2014\u2014\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb\u66fe\u6709\u5927\u9646\u6e38\u5ba2\u5230\u9999\u6e2f\u65c5\u6e38\u65f6\u611f\u5230\u88ab\u672c\u5730\u4eba\u6b67\u89c6\u3001\u6001\u5ea6\u51b7\u6de1\uff0c\u5982\u4eca\u60c5\u51b5\u5b8c\u5168\u53cd\u8f6c\uff0c\u5927\u9646\u7684\u7f51\u7ea2\u3001\u6e38\u5ba2\u5728\u9999\u6e2f\u968f\u5904\u62cd\u7167\u6253\u5361\uff0c\u611f\u53d7\u5230\u7684\u662f\u53cb\u5584\u800c\u975e\u654c\u610f\u3002\u4ed6\u4e5f\u5766\u8a00\u9999\u6e2f&#8221;\u4e00\u56fd\u4e24\u5236&#8221;\u4e0b\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7ed3\u6784\u95ee\u9898\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u96f6\u552e\u4e1a\u75b2\u8f6f\uff09\u4f9d\u7136\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e0e&#8221;\u662f\u5426\u88ab\u5584\u5f85&#8221;\u662f\u4e24\u56de\u4e8b\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u8282\u5185\u5bb9\u4e3a\u7406\u89e3\u53f0\u6e7e\u672a\u6765\u53ef\u80fd\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u573a\u666f\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u53c2\u7167\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>English:<\/strong><br>George Yeo pushes back on stereotypes about Hong Kong&#8217;s current reality \u2014 he notes that where mainland tourists once felt looked down upon by locals, the dynamic has now reversed, with mainland influencers and visitors moving freely and being treated warmly. He acknowledges genuine structural economic issues remain (like weak retail spending), but stresses that&#8217;s a separate question from whether Beijing has &#8220;mistreated&#8221; the city. This section functions as his real-world reference case for what a post-unification Taiwan scenario could actually look like.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. \u4e2d\u7f8e\u8d38\u6613\u6218\uff1a\u4e24\u4e2a\u56de\u5408 | The US-China Trade War: Two Rounds<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u4e2d\u6587\uff1a<\/strong><br>\u5bf9\u8bdd\u56de\u987e\u4e862018\u5e74\u4e0e&#8221;\u8fd9\u4e00\u6b21&#8221;\uff08\u7b2c\u4e8c\u8f6e\uff09\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u5fc3\u6001\u5dee\u5f02\uff1a2018\u5e74\u65f6\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7f51\u7edc\u8206\u8bba\u666e\u904d\u5f25\u6f2b\u7740&#8221;\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u8f93&#8221;&#8221;\u5fc5\u987b\u670d\u8f6f&#8221;\u7684\u60b2\u89c2\u60c5\u7eea\uff0c\u4e00\u5bb6\u5168\u56fd\u6027\u5a92\u4f53\u751a\u81f3\u62d2\u7edd\u64ad\u51fa\u4e00\u6bb5\u5c55\u73b0\u5f3a\u786c\u7acb\u573a\u7684\u89c6\u9891\uff0c\u62c5\u5fc3\u4e2d\u56fd\u82e5\u771f\u7684\u8f93\u4e86\u4f1a\u663e\u5f97&#8221;\u5f88\u50bb&#8221;\u3002\u800c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u51c6\u5907\u660e\u663e\u66f4\u5145\u5206\u2014\u2014\u8fc7\u53bb\u51e0\u5e74\u53cc\u5faa\u73af\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u6536\u7d27\u3001\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u5982\u4eca\u56de\u5934\u770b\u90fd\u50cf\u662f\u5728\u4e3a\u8fd9\u573a&#8221;\u5927\u8003&#8221;\u63d0\u524d\u5e03\u5c40\u3002\u6768\u8363\u6587\u63d0\u9192\uff1a\u5373\u4fbf\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fd9\u4e00\u8f6e\u8868\u73b0\u826f\u597d\uff0c\u4e5f\u7edd\u4e0d\u80fd\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u7279\u6717\u666e\u6c38\u8fdc\u4f1a\u5ba3\u79f0\u81ea\u5df1\u83b7\u80dc\uff0c\u800c\u4e0b\u4e00\u8f6e\u7684&#8221;\u8003\u8bd5&#8221;\u53ea\u4f1a\u66f4\u96be\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5bf9\u624b\u5df2\u7ecf\u6478\u6e05\u4e86\u4f60\u7684\u5e95\u724c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>English:<\/strong><br>The two discuss the stark mood shift between the 2018 trade war and the current round. In 2018, Chinese online sentiment leaned pessimistic \u2014 &#8220;we&#8217;re going to lose, we have to submit&#8221; \u2014 to the point a major state broadcaster refused to air a defiant promotional video out of fear China might look foolish if it actually lost. This time, Yeo says, China is far better prepared; the tightening of the &#8220;dual circulation&#8221; policy and the multi-year real-estate correction now look, in hindsight, like advance preparation for exactly this test. His caution: even a strong showing this round is no reason for overconfidence \u2014 Trump will always declare victory regardless of outcome, and the next round of tests will be tougher precisely because the opponent has now gauged China&#8217;s real strength.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4. \u4e1c\u76df\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6df1\u5ea6\u878d\u5408 | ASEAN-China Deep Integration<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u4e2d\u6587\uff1a<\/strong><br>\u6768\u8363\u6587\u7528\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u7bc7\u5e45\u63cf\u7ed8\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0e\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\u5728\u6c14\u5019\u3001\u65f6\u533a\u3001\u7269\u4ea7\u4e0a\u7684\u5929\u7136\u4e92\u8865\u6027\u2014\u2014\u4e2d\u56fd\u5317\u65b9\u5e72\u71e5\u5bd2\u51b7\u3001\u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u9f84\u5316\uff0c\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\u5e74\u8f7b\u3001\u6e29\u6696\u3001\u6c34\u8d44\u6e90\u4e30\u5bcc\uff0c\u53cc\u65b9\u5904\u4e8e\u76f8\u8fd1\u65f6\u533a\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u4e0e\u4eba\u5458\u5f80\u6765\u81ea\u7136\u800c\u7d27\u5bc6\u3002\u4ed6\u8fd8\u63d0\u5230\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a&#8221;\u6d77\u53c2\u3001\u71d5\u7a9d\u3001\u9c7c\u7fc5&#8221;\u7b49\u6d77\u4ea7\u8d38\u6613\u65e9\u5df2\u5c06\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0e\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\u8fde\u7ed3\u6570\u767e\u5e74\u3002\u4ed6\u629b\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u9887\u5177\u521b\u610f\u7684\u6784\u60f3\uff1a\u8ba9\u6d77\u5357\u6210\u4e3a&#8221;\u4e1c\u76df\u7684\u4f19\u4f34&#8221;\uff0c\u628a\u5357\u6d77\u4ece&#8221;\u4f60\u7684\u3001\u6211\u7684&#8221;\u4e89\u8bae\u6d77\u57df\uff0c\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u4e00\u7247\u8fde\u63a5\u5f7c\u6b64\u3001\u5e26\u6765\u5171\u540c\u5229\u76ca\u7684&#8221;\u5730\u4e2d\u6d77&#8221;\uff0c\u6d77\u5357\u53ef\u4ee5\u72ec\u7acb\u4e0e\u4e1c\u76df\u56fd\u5bb6\u8c08\u5224\u66f4\u6df1\u5165\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u8d38\u6613\u534f\u5b9a\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u8bbf\u8c08\u4e2d\u6700\u5177\u5efa\u8bbe\u6027\u3001\u4e5f\u6700\u5c11\u88ab\u4e3b\u6d41\u5a92\u4f53\u62a5\u9053\u7684\u4e00\u6bb5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>English:<\/strong><br>George Yeo spends considerable time on the natural complementarity between China and Southeast Asia \u2014 a dry, cold, aging north paired with a young, warm, water-rich south, operating in similar time zones, historically linked through centuries-old trade in sea cucumber, bird&#8217;s nest, and shark fin. His most creative proposal: make Hainan an &#8220;ASEAN partner,&#8221; reframing the South China Sea not as contested &#8220;yours vs. mine&#8221; territory but as a shared &#8220;Mediterranean&#8221; that connects rather than divides \u2014 with Hainan potentially negotiating its own deeper free trade arrangements with ASEAN states, going further than what&#8217;s possible with the mainland proper under WTO rules. This is arguably the most constructive and least-covered segment of the interview.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">5. \u6c34\u8d44\u6e90\u4e0e\u533a\u57df\u5b89\u5168 | Water, Rivers, and Regional Security<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u4e2d\u6587\uff1a<\/strong><br>\u6768\u8363\u6587\u63d0\u5230\u5370\u5df4\u4e4b\u95f4\u56e0\u6c34\u8d44\u6e90\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u4ee4\u4ed6&#8221;\u62c5\u5fe7&#8221;\uff0c\u5e76\u8054\u7cfb\u5230\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u81ea\u8eab\u5bf9\u9a6c\u6765\u897f\u4e9a\u4f9b\u6c34\u7684\u654f\u611f\u4f9d\u8d56\u2014\u2014&#8221;\u5207\u65ad\u4f9b\u6c34\u5386\u6765\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u5ba3\u6218\u7684\u7406\u7531&#8221;\u3002\u4ed6\u6f84\u6e05\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e38\u89c1\u8bef\u89e3\uff1a\u6e44\u516c\u6cb3\u6d41\u5165\u5357\u6d77\u7684\u6c34\u91cf\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\u6765\u81ea\u8001\u631d\u800c\u975e\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4fee\u5efa\u6c34\u575d\u786e\u5b9e\u9700\u8981\u4e0e\u4e0b\u6e38\u56fd\u5bb6\u6c9f\u901a\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u66f4\u591a\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u591a\u56fd\u534f\u8c03\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u5355\u7eaf\u7684&#8221;\u4e2d\u56fd\u63a7\u6c34&#8221;\u53d9\u4e8b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>English:<\/strong><br>George Yeo describes being genuinely worried about India-Pakistan tensions over water, drawing a parallel to Singapore&#8217;s own sensitivity around its water supply from Malaysia \u2014 &#8220;cutting off water has traditionally been considered grounds for war.&#8221; He also corrects a common misconception: two-thirds of the Mekong&#8217;s flow into the South China Sea comes from Laos, not China, meaning dam-building requires coordination among multiple downstream states rather than fitting a simple &#8220;China controls the water&#8221; narrative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">6. \u671d\u8d21\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u91cd\u65b0\u89e3\u8bfb | Rethinking the Tributary System<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u4e2d\u6587\uff1a<\/strong><br>\u8fd9\u662f\u5168\u573a\u6700\u5177\u5386\u53f2\u7eb5\u6df1\u7684\u4e00\u6bb5\u3002\u6768\u8363\u6587\u7ea0\u6b63\u4e86&#8221;\u671d\u8d21&#8221;\uff08tribute\uff09\u8fd9\u4e00\u7ffb\u8bd1\u672c\u8eab\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u8bef\u5bfc\u2014\u2014\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u8499\u53e4\u91d1\u5e10\u6c57\u56fd\u5f0f\u7684&#8221;\u8fdb\u8d21&#8221;\u662f\u5f31\u8005\u5411\u5f3a\u8005\u4ea4\u4fdd\u62a4\u8d39\uff0c\u800c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684&#8221;\u901a&#8221;\uff08\u671d\u8d21\u8d38\u6613\uff09\u4f53\u7cfb\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\u7684\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ed9\u4e88\u671d\u8d21\u56fd\u8fdc\u8d85\u5176\u6240\u732e\u8d21\u54c1\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u8d4f\u8d50\u4e0e\u8d38\u6613\u4f18\u60e0\uff0c\u672c\u8d28\u662f\u4e00\u79cd&#8221;\u9762\u5b50\u6362\u5b9e\u60e0&#8221;\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u5b89\u6392\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u5f3a\u5236\u5f81\u7a0e\u3002\u4ed6\u8fd8\u63d0\u5230\u4e2d\u56fd\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u5bf9\u9020\u7eb8\u672f\u3001\u4e1d\u7ef8\u5de5\u827a\u957f\u671f\u4fdd\u5bc6\u6570\u767e\u5e74\uff0c\u662f\u5f53\u65f6\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684&#8221;\u4fe1\u606f\u6280\u672f&#8221;\u5784\u65ad\uff0c\u4e5f\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e3a\u4f55\u957f\u671f\u80fd\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u4eba\u53e3\u7684\u6cbb\u7406\u4f53\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>English:<\/strong><br>This is the most historically rich segment. George Yeo challenges the very translation of &#8220;tribute&#8221; \u2014 pointing out that while Mongol-era vassals paid genuine protection money upward to the Golden Horde, the Chinese tributary trade system historically worked the other way around: the emperor&#8217;s gifts and trade privileges to tributary states routinely exceeded the value of what was &#8220;offered&#8221; \u2014 a face-for-benefits exchange rather than coerced extraction. He draws a parallel to China&#8217;s centuries-long secrecy over papermaking and silk production \u2014 essentially the &#8220;information technology&#8221; monopoly of its era \u2014 as part of explaining how China was able to administer the largest population on earth for so long.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">7. \u534e\u4e3a\u4e0eDeepSeek\uff1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6cbb\u56fd\u672f\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u6848\u4f8b | Huawei and DeepSeek: Two Cases of Economic Statecraft<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u4e2d\u6587\uff1a<\/strong><br>\u6768\u8363\u6587\u5766\u8a00\u81ea\u5df1\u8d77\u521d\u5e76\u4e0d\u613f\u610f\u4e3a\u534e\u4e3a\u62c5\u4efb\u987e\u95ee\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u770b\u5230\u8be5\u516c\u53f8\u906d\u53d7\u6253\u538b\u540e\u4ecd\u5c55\u73b0\u51fa\u7684\u97e7\u6027\uff0c\u624d\u51b3\u5b9a\u652f\u6301\u3002\u4ed6\u8c08\u5230\u4e2d\u56fd\u9009\u62e9\u5c06DeepSeek\u5f00\u6e90\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u6b21\u6781\u5177\u6218\u7565\u773c\u5149\u7684\u4e3e\u52a8\u2014\u2014\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u578b\u79d1\u6280\u516c\u53f8\u9760\u5784\u65ad\u6536\u8d39\u7684&#8221;\u8f66\u8f6e\u4e13\u5229&#8221;\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u9009\u62e9\u628a&#8221;\u8f6e\u5b50&#8221;\u514d\u8d39\u5f00\u653e\u7ed9\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u4f7f\u7528\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6a21\u5f0f\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u957f\u8fdc\u5f71\u54cd\u5de8\u5927\uff0c\u800c\u90a3\u4e9b\u8bd5\u56fe\u9760\u5784\u65ad\u6536\u8d39\u7ef4\u6301\u4f18\u52bf\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u516c\u53f8\u672a\u6765\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u9677\u5165\u9ebb\u70e6\u3002\u4ed6\u501f\u7528\u9a6c\u514b\u601d&#8221;\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u4e0e\u4e0a\u5c42\u5efa\u7b51\u77db\u76fe\u8bba&#8221;\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u6307\u51fa\uff1aAI\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u65b0\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5236\u5ea6\uff08\u4e0a\u5c42\u5efa\u7b51\uff09\u4e0d\u80fd\u4e0e\u4e4b\u9002\u914d\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u5185\u90e8\u77db\u76fe\u5c06\u52a0\u5267\uff1b\u90a3\u4e9b\u613f\u610f\u5feb\u901f\u8bd5\u9519\u3001\u8c03\u6574\u3001\u524d\u8fdb\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u4f1a\u66f4\u80fd\u9002\u5e94\u65b0\u6280\u672f\u6d6a\u6f6e\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u591a\u4e2a&#8221;DeepSeek&#8221;\u5f0f\u9879\u76ee\u5e76\u884c\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u57fa\u7840\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>English:<\/strong><br>George Yeo admits he initially hesitated to advise Huawei, deciding to support the company only after witnessing its resilience under pressure. He frames China&#8217;s decision to open-source DeepSeek as a strategically savvy move \u2014 rather than charging royalties on a &#8220;patented wheel&#8221; the way dominant US tech firms do, China effectively said &#8220;use the wheel for free,&#8221; a choice he believes carries major long-term economic and social implications, while companies clinging to monopoly-rent models may eventually run into trouble. Invoking Marx&#8217;s base\/superstructure framework, he argues AI is a new productive force, and societies whose institutions (superstructure) fail to adapt will face sharpening internal contradictions \u2014 while nations willing to experiment fast, fail, adjust, and move on will adapt best, which is also why multiple &#8220;DeepSeek-style&#8221; models are emerging in parallel across China&#8217;s single large market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">8. \u591a\u6781\u4e16\u754c\uff1a\u4e09\u4e2a\u592a\u9633\u7684\u6bd4\u55bb | Multipolarity: The &#8220;Three Suns&#8221; Metaphor<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u4e2d\u6587\uff1a<\/strong><br>\u8c08\u5230\u4e16\u754c\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u8f6c\u53d8\uff0c\u6768\u8363\u6587\u7528\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6781\u5177\u753b\u9762\u611f\u7684\u6bd4\u55bb\uff1a\u5355\u6781\u4e16\u754c\u50cf\u53ea\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u592a\u9633\uff0c\u8f68\u9053\u65e9\u5df2\u6ce8\u5b9a\uff0c\u7b80\u5355\u5374\u7f3a\u4e4f\u81ea\u7531\uff1b\u4e24\u6781\u4e16\u754c\u50cf\u4e24\u4e2a\u592a\u9633\uff0c\u5e26\u6765\u66f4\u591a\u7a7a\u95f4\u4f46\u4e5f\u66f4\u591a\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff1b\u800c\u4e09\u6781\u6216\u591a\u6781\u4e16\u754c\u5219\u50cf\u4e09\u4e2a\u592a\u9633\u540c\u65f6\u5b58\u5728\u2014\u2014&#8221;\u90a3\u7b80\u76f4\u662f\u4e00\u573a\u5934\u75db&#8221;\u3002\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u79cd\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u591a\u6781\u683c\u5c40\uff0c\u6070\u6070\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u79cd\u5171\u540c\u7684\u4f26\u7406\u6846\u67b6\u6765\u7ea6\u675f\u6280\u672f\uff08\u5c24\u5176\u662fAI\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u6bc1\u706d\u6027\u529b\u91cf\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u63d0\u51fa&#8221;\u4eba\u7c7b\u547d\u8fd0\u5171\u540c\u4f53&#8221;\u3001\u6559\u7687\u65b9\u6d4e\u5404\u63d0\u51fa&#8221;\u5171\u540c\u4eba\u6027&#8221;\u7b49\u7406\u5ff5\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u6240\u5728\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>English:<\/strong><br>On the shifting world order, George Yeo offers a vivid image: a unipolar world is like having one sun \u2014 your orbit is fixed and predictable, simple but unfree; a bipolar world, two suns, gives more room to maneuver but also more uncertainty; a multipolar world with three or more suns is, in his words, &#8220;a headache.&#8221; He argues this high-uncertainty multipolar environment is precisely why a shared ethical framework is needed to govern potentially destructive technologies like AI \u2014 the same underlying impulse behind China&#8217;s &#8220;shared future for mankind&#8221; concept and Pope Francis&#8217;s notion of a &#8220;common humanity.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u95ee\u7b54\u73af\u8282\u7cbe\u9009 | Q&amp;A Highlights<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Q: \u4e2d\u56fd\u662f\u5426\u4e3a\u8fd9\u573a\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u505a\u597d\u4e86\u51c6\u5907\uff1fQ: Is China well-prepared for this trade war?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6768\u8363\u6587\uff1a\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u662f\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u6c38\u8fdc\u4e0d\u8be5\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u8be5\u50f5\u5316\u2014\u2014\u6253\u51fb\u603b\u4f1a\u5230\u6765\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u6301\u7eed\u9002\u5e94\u3002<br>George Yeo: It looks that way, but one should never be overconfident or rigid \u2014 blows will come, and you must keep adapting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Q: \u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u4e0e\u4e1c\u76df\u662f\u5426\u7ec8\u5c06\u88ab\u8feb\u5728\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e4b\u95f4\u9009\u8fb9\u7ad9\uff1fQ: Will Singapore and ASEAN eventually be forced to choose sides between China and the US?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6768\u8363\u6587\uff1a\u4e1c\u76df\u7684\u672c\u80fd\u662f\u2014\u2014\u8d38\u6613\u597d\u3001\u6295\u8d44\u597d\u3001\u5173\u7cfb\u597d\uff0c\u4f46\u8981\u4fdd\u6301\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u6b63\u5f0f\u8ddd\u79bb\uff0c\u5e76\u5e7f\u4ea4\u670b\u53cb\u3002\u4ed6\u5f15\u7528\u6731\u9555\u57fa\u603b\u74062000\u5e74\u4e3b\u52a8\u5411\u4e1c\u76df\u63d0\u51fa\u81ea\u8d38\u534f\u5b9a\u3001\u5e76\u627f\u8bfa&#8221;\u5341\u5e74\u540e\u82e5\u534f\u8bae\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u66f4\u6709\u5229\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u613f\u610f\u91cd\u65b0\u8c08\u5224&#8221;\u7684\u5f80\u4e8b\uff0c\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ece\u672a\u8981\u6c42\u4e1c\u76df&#8221;\u9009\u8fb9\u7ad9&#8221;\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u4e1c\u76df\u4ecd\u662f\u670b\u53cb\u5373\u53ef\u3002<br>George Yeo: ASEAN&#8217;s instinct is that trade is good, investment is good, relations are good \u2014 but maintain a degree of formal distance and keep other friends too. He recalls Premier Zhu Rongji proactively offering ASEAN a free trade deal in 2000, promising to renegotiate in ten years if it favored China unfairly \u2014 evidence, in Yeo&#8217;s view, that China has never demanded ASEAN &#8220;choose sides&#8221; as long as it remains a friend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Q: \u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u8c08\u5224\u98ce\u683c\u662f\u600e\u6837\u7684\uff1fQ: What is Trump&#8217;s negotiating style like?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6768\u8363\u6587\u7528\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u751f\u52a8\u7684\u6bd4\u55bb\uff1a\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5982\u679c\u60f3\u8981\u4e24\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4ed6\u4f1a\u5148\u5f00\u53e3\u8981\u5341\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u7528\u8fd1\u4e4e\u6050\u5413\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u65bd\u538b\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u4f60\u53ef\u80fd&#8221;\u5fc3\u7518\u60c5\u613f&#8221;\u5730\u7ed9\u4ed6\u4e09\u7f8e\u5143\u2014\u2014\u6bd4\u4ed6\u539f\u672c\u60f3\u8981\u7684\u8fd8\u591a\uff0c\u800c\u4f60\u5374\u56e0\u4e3a&#8221;\u53ea\u7ed9\u4e86\u4e09\u7f8e\u5143\u3001\u4e0d\u662f\u5341\u7f8e\u5143&#8221;\u800c\u5982\u91ca\u91cd\u8d1f\u3002<br>George Yeo, with a vivid analogy: if Trump wants two dollars, he opens by demanding ten, applies almost frightening pressure, and you end up &#8220;gladly&#8221; handing over three \u2014 more than he originally wanted \u2014 while you feel relieved you only gave three instead of ten.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Q: \u897f\u65b9\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u6700\u5927\u7684\u8bef\u89e3\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1fQ: What is the West&#8217;s biggest blind spot about China?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6768\u8363\u6587\uff1a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u6050\u60e7\u662f&#8221;\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e00\u65e6\u5f3a\u5927\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u50cf\u897f\u65b9\u5217\u5f3a\u4e00\u6837\u884c\u4e8b&#8221;\u2014\u2014\u4f46\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6218\u7565\u6587\u5316\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u662f\u9632\u5fa1\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u6e90\u4e8e\u6df1\u539a\u7684\u5112\u5bb6\u7b49\u7ea7\u89c2\u5ff5\u4e0e&#8221;\u9762\u5b50&#8221;\u6587\u5316\uff0c\u4e5f\u6e90\u4e8e\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u5c61\u6b21\u56e0\u8fc7\u5ea6\u6269\u5f20\u800c\u62db\u81f4\u707e\u96be\u7684\u6559\u8bad\u3002<br>George Yeo: The biggest Western fear is that a powerful China will behave like a Western imperial power once did. But Chinese strategic culture is fundamentally defensive, rooted in Confucian hierarchy and face-consciousness, and in the historical lesson that overreach has repeatedly led to regret.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u7ed3\u8bba\u4e0e\u8981\u70b9\u603b\u7ed3 | Conclusion &amp; Key Takeaways<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u4e2d\u6587\uff1a<\/strong><br>\u8fd9\u573a\u8bbf\u8c08\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u4e0d\u5728\u4e8e\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e50\u89c2\u6216\u60b2\u89c2\u7684\u786e\u5b9a\u7b54\u6848\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u4e8e\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u6574\u5957\u7406\u89e3&#8221;\u4e2d\u56fd\u5982\u4f55\u770b\u5f85\u81ea\u5df1\u3001\u5982\u4f55\u770b\u5f85\u90bb\u5c45\u3001\u5982\u4f55\u770b\u5f85\u7f8e\u56fd&#8221;\u7684\u5206\u6790\u6846\u67b6\u3002\u6768\u8363\u6587\u672c\u4eba\u4e5f\u5766\u627f\u5bf9\u53f0\u6e7e\u95ee\u9898\u5e76\u4e0d\u4e50\u89c2\u2014\u2014&#8221;\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u9519\u8fc7\u4e86\u90a3\u4e2a\u7a97\u53e3&#8221;\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u4e24\u5cb8\u5e74\u8f7b\u4e00\u4ee3\u5728\u6559\u80b2\u4e0e\u8eab\u4efd\u8ba4\u540c\u4e0a\u7684\u5206\u6b67\u6b63\u5728\u52a0\u6df1\u3002\u4f46\u4ed6\u540c\u65f6\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u5386\u53f2\u7684\u4f24\u53e3&#8221;\u53ef\u4ee5\u6108\u5408&#8221;\uff0c\u5173\u952e\u5728\u4e8e\u53cc\u65b9\u662f\u5426\u613f\u610f\u6295\u5165\u65f6\u95f4\u3001\u8010\u5fc3\u4e0e\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u628a\u5f7c\u6b64\u5f53\u4f5c\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u5f3a\u884c\u62c9\u56de\u6216\u5f3a\u884c\u63a8\u5f00\u7684\u5bf9\u8c61\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u5173\u952e\u8981\u70b9 | Key Takeaways\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u82e5\u53d1\u751f\u5f3a\u5236\u7edf\u4e00\uff0c\u6768\u8363\u6587\u4f30\u8ba1\u7ea65%\u201310%\u7684\u53f0\u6e7e\u4eba\u4f1a\u79bb\u5f00\uff0c\u5176\u4f59\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u4f1a\u7559\u4e0b\u5e76\u9010\u6e10\u9002\u5e94\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u4e0e\u9999\u6e2f\u56fd\u5b89\u6cd5\u540e\u7ea630\u4e07\u4eba\u79bb\u5f00\u3001\u4f46\u793e\u4f1a\u6574\u4f53\u8fd0\u8f6c\u5982\u5e38\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u7c7b\u4f3c\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6218\u7565\u6587\u5316\u88ab\u6768\u8363\u6587\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a&#8221;\u9632\u5fa1\u6027&#8221;\uff0c\u5176\u6839\u6e90\u53ef\u8ffd\u6eaf\u81f3\u300a\u5b59\u5b50\u5175\u6cd5\u300b\u4e0e\u5112\u5bb6\u4f26\u7406\uff0c\u503e\u5411\u4ee5\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u5916\u4ea4\u624b\u6bb5\u800c\u975e\u519b\u4e8b\u624b\u6bb5\u8fbe\u6210\u76ee\u6807\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2018\u5e74\u4e0e\u5f53\u524d\u8fd9\u8f6e\u8d38\u6613\u6218\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u5fc3\u6001\u5df2\u4ece\u60b2\u89c2\u8f6c\u5411\u66f4\u6709\u51c6\u5907\u7684\u81ea\u4fe1\uff0c\u4f46\u6768\u8363\u6587\u63d0\u9192\u5207\u52ff\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;\u671d\u8d21\u4f53\u7cfb&#8221;\u5e38\u88ab\u8bef\u8bd1\u4e3a\u5355\u5411\u7eb3\u8d21\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ed9\u4e88\u8d38\u6613\u56fd\u8fdc\u8d85\u8d21\u54c1\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u56de\u9988\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u79cd&#8221;\u9762\u5b50\u6362\u5b9e\u60e0&#8221;\u7684\u53cc\u5411\u5b89\u6392\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>DeepSeek\u5f00\u6e90\u4e0e\u534e\u4e3a\u7684\u97e7\u6027\uff0c\u88ab\u6768\u8363\u6587\u89c6\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd&#8221;\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6cbb\u56fd\u672f&#8221;\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u5176\u957f\u8fdc\u5f71\u54cd\u53ef\u80fd\u91cd\u5851\u5168\u7403\u79d1\u6280\u4ea7\u4e1a\u7684\u5546\u4e1a\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u9762\u5bf9\u591a\u6781\u4e16\u754c\u8fd9\u4e2a&#8221;\u4e09\u4e2a\u592a\u9633&#8221;\u7684\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u73af\u5883\uff0c\u6768\u8363\u6587\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8feb\u5207\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u79cd\u5171\u540c\u7684\u4f26\u7406\u6846\u67b6\u6765\u9a7e\u9a6dAI\u7b49\u98a0\u8986\u6027\u6280\u672f\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5173\u4e8e\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u7acb\u573a\uff1a\u6768\u8363\u6587\u56e0\u513f\u5b50\u63a5\u53d7\u53f0\u6e7e\u9aa8\u9ad3\u6350\u8d60\u800c\u5bf9\u53f0\u6e7e\u62b1\u6709\u6df1\u539a\u60c5\u611f\uff0c\u4e3b\u5f20\u5927\u9646\u5e94\u4ee5&#8221;\u8d62\u56de\u5bb6\u4eba&#8221;\u7684\u8010\u5fc3\uff0c\u800c\u975e&#8221;\u6293\u56de\u9003\u5bb6\u513f\u5b50&#8221;\u7684\u5f3a\u786c\u59ff\u6001\u5904\u7406\u4e24\u5cb8\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>English:<\/strong><br>The value of this interview isn&#8217;t a definitive optimistic or pessimistic verdict \u2014 it&#8217;s the analytical framework it offers for understanding how China sees itself, its neighbors, and the United States. Yeo himself is candid that he isn&#8217;t optimistic about Taiwan \u2014 &#8220;I think we&#8217;ve missed that window&#8221; \u2014 especially as younger generations on both sides of the strait diverge further in education and identity. Yet he insists historical wounds &#8220;can heal,&#8221; provided both sides invest the time, patience, and genuine understanding needed, rather than treating each other as objects to be forcibly reclaimed or forcibly pushed away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key Takeaways:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>George Yeo estimates 5\u201310% of Taiwanese would leave under forced reunification, with the majority staying and adapting \u2014 a parallel he draws to Hong Kong&#8217;s ~300,000 post-National-Security-Law departures, after which society largely functioned as normal.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>George Yeo frames Chinese strategic culture as fundamentally defensive, rooted in Sun Tzu and Confucian ethics, favoring economic and diplomatic leverage over military force.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Chinese sentiment shifted from pessimism in the 2018 trade war to greater preparedness and confidence today \u2014 though George Yeo warns against overconfidence.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The &#8220;tributary system&#8221; is often mistranslated as one-way tribute; historically it was closer to a two-way exchange where China&#8217;s gifts and trade privileges exceeded what was &#8220;offered&#8221; \u2014 face for benefit.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>DeepSeek&#8217;s open-sourcing and Huawei&#8217;s resilience are, in George Yeo&#8217;s view, two key case studies in Chinese economic statecraft with potentially industry-reshaping global implications.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In a &#8220;three suns&#8221; multipolar world of heightened uncertainty, George Yeo argues a shared ethical framework is urgently needed to govern disruptive technologies like AI.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>On Taiwan personally: George Yeo&#8217;s deep affinity stems from his son&#8217;s bone marrow donor being Taiwanese, and he advocates that Beijing approach cross-strait relations with the patience of winning back family, not the force of dragging home a runaway child.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u53c2\u8003\u8d44\u6599 | References<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u539f\u59cb\u89c6\u9891 \/ Original video: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=Lri6tgANizs\">\u5982\u679c\u88ab\u8feb\u7edf\u4e00\uff0c10%\u7684\u4eba\u4f1a\u79bb\u5f00\u53f0\u6e7e\uff0c\u6768\u8363\u6587\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ece\u672a\u4e8f\u5f85\u8fc7\u9999\u6e2f<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/mahbubani.net\/has-china-won-the-chinese-challenge-to-american-primacy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Kishore Mahbubani, <em>Has China Won?: The Chinese Challenge to American Primacy<\/em> (PublicAffairs, 2020)<\/a> \u2014 relevant background on multipolarity and China-US relations discussed in the interview<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.globaltimes.cn\/page\/202401\/1305574.shtml\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Global Times, &#8220;Mainland to unswervingly advance reunification, oppose secessionism and uphold peace: Taiwan Affairs Office&#8221; (Jan 17, 2024) <\/a>\u2014 for official mainland policy language on peaceful reunification and &#8220;one country, two systems&#8221;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bangkokpost.com\/world\/2384671\/singapore-ex-diplomat-warns-to-not-underestimate-china-on-taiwan\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Bloomberg, &#8220;Singapore Ex-Diplomat Warns to Not Underestimate China on Taiwan&#8221; (Sept 5, 2022) <\/a>\u2014 earlier public remarks by George Yeo on Taiwan risk<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u524d\u5916\u957f\u6768\u8363\u6587\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6cbb\u56fd\u4e4b\u9053\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u662f\u9632\u5fa1\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u6269\u5f20\u6027\u7684\u3002\u8c08\u53ca\u53f0\u6e7e\uff0c\u4ed6\u9884\u6d4b\u82e5\u5f3a\u5236\u7edf\u4e00\uff0c\u7ea65%\u81f310%\u7684\u4eba\u4f1a\u79bb\u5f00\uff0c\u5176\u4f59\u4eba\u5c06\u50cf\u9999\u6e2f\u57282020\u5e74\u540e\u90a3\u6837\u9010\u6e10\u9002\u5e94\u3002\u4ece\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u8c08\u5224\u98ce\u683c\u5230DeepSeek\u7684\u5f00\u6e90\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u6768\u8363\u6587\u4ee5\u7f55\u89c1\u7684\u5185\u90e8\u89c6\u89d2\uff0c\u63cf\u7ed8\u51fa\u4ed6\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a&#8221;\u4e09\u4e2a\u592a\u9633&#8221;\u7684\u591a\u6781\u4e16\u754c\u56fe\u666f\u3002<br \/>\nSingapore&#8217;s former Foreign Minister George Yeo argues China&#8217;s statecraft is fundamentally defensive, not expansionist. On Taiwan, he predicts 5\u201310% might leave under forced reunification, the rest adapting much like Hong Kong did post-2020. From Trump&#8217;s negotiating style to DeepSeek&#8217;s open-source gambit, Yeo offers a rare insider&#8217;s map of a multipolar world he likens to &#8220;three suns.&#8221;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8541,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15,31,18,13,7,21,30],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8540","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ai","category-chinese-","category-education","category-quantum-and-u","category-quantum-mindset-programme","category-sea","category-speeches"],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/meta-quantum.today\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/China-and-ASEAN-Multipolar-Vision-scaled.jpg","featured_image_src_square":"https:\/\/meta-quantum.today\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/China-and-ASEAN-Multipolar-Vision-scaled.jpg","author_info":{"display_name":"coffee","author_link":"https:\/\/meta-quantum.today\/?author=1"},"rbea_author_info":{"display_name":"coffee","author_link":"https:\/\/meta-quantum.today\/?author=1"},"rbea_excerpt_info":"\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u524d\u5916\u957f\u6768\u8363\u6587\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6cbb\u56fd\u4e4b\u9053\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u662f\u9632\u5fa1\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u6269\u5f20\u6027\u7684\u3002\u8c08\u53ca\u53f0\u6e7e\uff0c\u4ed6\u9884\u6d4b\u82e5\u5f3a\u5236\u7edf\u4e00\uff0c\u7ea65%\u81f310%\u7684\u4eba\u4f1a\u79bb\u5f00\uff0c\u5176\u4f59\u4eba\u5c06\u50cf\u9999\u6e2f\u57282020\u5e74\u540e\u90a3\u6837\u9010\u6e10\u9002\u5e94\u3002\u4ece\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u8c08\u5224\u98ce\u683c\u5230DeepSeek\u7684\u5f00\u6e90\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u6768\u8363\u6587\u4ee5\u7f55\u89c1\u7684\u5185\u90e8\u89c6\u89d2\uff0c\u63cf\u7ed8\u51fa\u4ed6\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\"\u4e09\u4e2a\u592a\u9633\"\u7684\u591a\u6781\u4e16\u754c\u56fe\u666f\u3002\nSingapore's former Foreign Minister George Yeo argues China's statecraft is fundamentally defensive, not expansionist. On Taiwan, he predicts 5\u201310% might leave under forced reunification, the rest adapting much like Hong Kong did post-2020. From Trump's negotiating style to DeepSeek's open-source gambit, Yeo offers a rare insider's map of a multipolar world he likens to \"three suns.\"","category_list":"<a href=\"https:\/\/meta-quantum.today\/?cat=15\" rel=\"category\">AI<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/meta-quantum.today\/?cat=31\" rel=\"category\">Chinese\/\u4e2d\u6587<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/meta-quantum.today\/?cat=18\" rel=\"category\">Education<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/meta-quantum.today\/?cat=13\" rel=\"category\">Quantum and U<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/meta-quantum.today\/?cat=7\" rel=\"category\">Quantum Mindset Programme<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/meta-quantum.today\/?cat=21\" rel=\"category\">SEA<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/meta-quantum.today\/?cat=30\" rel=\"category\">Speeches<\/a>","comments_num":"0 comments","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/meta-quantum.today\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8540","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/meta-quantum.today\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/meta-quantum.today\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/meta-quantum.today\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/meta-quantum.today\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8540"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/meta-quantum.today\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8540\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8544,"href":"https:\/\/meta-quantum.today\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8540\/revisions\/8544"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/meta-quantum.today\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/8541"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/meta-quantum.today\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8540"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/meta-quantum.today\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8540"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/meta-quantum.today\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8540"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}