{"id":8535,"date":"2026-07-26T18:45:00","date_gmt":"2026-07-26T10:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/meta-quantum.today\/?p=8535"},"modified":"2026-07-26T18:33:54","modified_gmt":"2026-07-26T10:33:54","slug":"%e5%89%8d%e6%96%b0%e5%8a%a0%e5%9d%a1%e5%a4%96%e4%ba%a4%e9%83%a8%e9%95%bf%e6%9d%a8%e8%8d%a3%e6%96%87%e5%8f%97%e9%82%80%e5%9c%a8%e9%a6%99%e6%b8%af%e5%a4%a7%e5%ad%a6%e4%bd%9c%e6%bc%94%e8%ae%b2-former-s","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/meta-quantum.today\/?p=8535","title":{"rendered":"\u524d\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u5916\u4ea4\u90e8\u957f\u6768\u8363\u6587\u53d7\u9080\u5728\u9999\u6e2f\u5927\u5b66\u4f5c\u6f14\u8bb2 \/ Former Singapore Foreign Minister George Yeo’s speech at the HKU"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Video Reviewed \/ \u89c6\u9891\u6765\u6e90\uff1a<\/strong> \u53f0\u6e7e\u672c\u53ef\u4e0d\u505a\u68cb\u5b50\uff0c\u4f46\u81ea\u613f\u4e3a\u68cb\uff0c\u6768\u8363\u6587\u9999\u6e2f\u5927\u5b66\u56de\u5e94”\u6b7b\u4ea1”\u63d0\u95ee\uff0c\u8bdd\u5f88\u96be\u542c<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Introduction \/ \u5f15\u8a00<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Former Singapore Foreign Minister George Yeo (\u6768\u8363\u6587) delivered this address at the inaugural event of the Centre on Contemporary China at the University of Hong Kong, marking the launch of his memoir Musings<\/em>. What starts as a personal reflection on Lee Kuan Yew, Hong Kong, and old friendships quickly opens into one of the clearest and most unsentimental accounts of the emerging multipolar world you’re likely to hear from a former minister \u2014 and it ends with an audience Q&A blunt enough to make the room go quiet, especially on the question of Taiwan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6768\u8363\u6587\u662f\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u524d\u5916\u4ea4\u90e8\u957f\uff0c\u6b64\u6b21\u6f14\u8bb2\u662f\u9999\u6e2f\u5927\u5b66”\u5f53\u4ee3\u4e2d\u56fd\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3”\u7684\u5f00\u5e55\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u662f\u4ed6\u65b0\u4e66\u300a\u7701\u601d\u300b(Musings<\/em>) \u7684\u53d1\u5e03\u4f1a\u3002\u6f14\u8bb2\u4ece\u4ed6\u4e0e\u674e\u5149\u8000\u3001\u9999\u6e2f\u3001\u65e7\u53cb\u7684\u79c1\u4eba\u56de\u5fc6\u5c55\u5f00\uff0c\u9010\u6b65\u8fc7\u6e21\u5230\u5bf9\u591a\u6781\u4e16\u754c\u79e9\u5e8f\u6700\u6e05\u9192\u3001\u6700\u4e0d\u5e26\u611f\u60c5\u8272\u5f69\u7684\u5206\u6790\u4e4b\u4e00\u2014\u2014\u800c\u968f\u540e\u7684\u95ee\u7b54\u73af\u8282\u66f4\u662f\u76f4\u8a00\u4e0d\u8bb3\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u5728\u53f0\u6e7e\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\uff0c\u8ba9\u5168\u573a\u4e3a\u4e4b\u4e00\u9759\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The now-famous line comes early, almost as an aside, in response to a moderator’s question about what Singapore would do in a US-China conflict over Taiwan: Taiwan cannot determine US-China relations, but Taiwan can decide whether to let itself be used.<\/strong> If Taiwan says no, the US cannot use it. If Taiwan says yes \u2014 hoping American pressure might “so devastate China” that opportunity opens up \u2014 that is Taiwan’s own choice, and its own risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u90a3\u53e5\u5982\u4eca\u5e7f\u4e3a\u6d41\u4f20\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u51fa\u73b0\u5f97\u5f88\u65e9\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u662f\u968f\u53e3\u4e00\u63d0\u2014\u2014\u56de\u5e94\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba\u5173\u4e8e”\u82e5\u7f8e\u4e2d\u56e0\u53f0\u6e7e\u5f00\u6218\uff0c\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u4f1a\u600e\u4e48\u505a”\u7684\u63d0\u95ee\u65f6\uff0c\u6768\u8363\u6587\u8bf4\uff1a\u53f0\u6e7e\u65e0\u6cd5\u51b3\u5b9a\u7f8e\u4e2d\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4f46\u53f0\u6e7e\u53ef\u4ee5\u51b3\u5b9a\u662f\u5426\u7518\u613f\u88ab\u5229\u7528\u3002<\/strong> \u5982\u679c\u53f0\u6e7e\u8bf4\u4e0d\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c31\u65e0\u6cd5\u5229\u7528\u53f0\u6e7e\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u53f0\u6e7e\u8bf4\u597d\u2014\u2014\u5bc4\u671b\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u65bd\u538b\u80fd\u8ba9\u4e2d\u56fd”\u5143\u6c14\u5927\u4f24”\u4ece\u800c\u51fa\u73b0\u673a\u4f1a\u2014\u2014\u90a3\u4e5f\u662f\u53f0\u6e7e\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Video – Speech <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Video – Q&A <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Core Concept: Taiwan as a Chosen Pawn, Not a Forced One \/ \u6838\u5fc3\u6982\u5ff5\uff1a\u53f0\u6e7e\u662f”\u81ea\u613f”\u800c\u975e”\u88ab\u8feb”\u7684\u68cb\u5b50<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Yeo’s framing is worth unpacking carefully, because it cuts against the more common narrative (in both Western and Chinese-language media) that Taiwan is simply caught between two great powers with no agency of its own.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6768\u8363\u6587\u7684\u8bba\u8ff0\u503c\u5f97\u7ec6\u7ec6\u62c6\u89e3\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u6311\u6218\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e2d\u897f\u5a92\u4f53\u90fd\u5f88\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u53d9\u4e8b\u2014\u2014\u5373\u53f0\u6e7e\u53ea\u662f\u88ab\u4e24\u5927\u5f3a\u6743\u5939\u5728\u4e2d\u95f4\u3001\u522b\u65e0\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u68cb\u5b50\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

His argument in three parts:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. Taiwan cannot shape the US-China relationship itself.<\/strong> The relationship is determined by the two great powers’ own interests and calculations \u2014 Taiwan is not a variable in that larger equation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Taiwan can<\/em> decide whether to offer itself as an instrument.<\/strong> If Washington wants to use the island to provoke or pressure Beijing, that only works if Taipei agrees to play the role.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. The choice carries consequences either way.<\/strong> Refusing the role removes Taiwan from the crosshairs \u2014 “this is not my problem,” in Yeo’s words. Accepting it, in hope that US pressure might fracture or weaken China enough to create an opening (the “Red Sea parting” image he borrows from Lee Teng-hui’s own words to Japanese writer Ryotaro Shiba), is a bet \u2014 and a dangerous one if the wished-for opening never comes: “if you base a policy on a wish or build your hopes on an illusion, then it can lead to tragedy.”<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    \u4ed6\u7684\u8bba\u70b9\u5206\u4e3a\u4e09\u5c42\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    1. \u53f0\u6e7e\u65e0\u6cd5\u5de6\u53f3\u7f8e\u4e2d\u5173\u7cfb\u672c\u8eab<\/strong>\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u5c42\u5173\u7cfb\u7531\u4e24\u5927\u5f3a\u6743\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u548c\u7b97\u8ba1\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c\u53f0\u6e7e\u5e76\u975e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5927\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u4e2d\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    2. \u53f0\u6e7e”\u53ef\u4ee5”\u51b3\u5b9a\u662f\u5426\u8ba9\u81ea\u5df1\u6210\u4e3a\u5de5\u5177<\/strong>\u3002\u5982\u679c\u534e\u76db\u987f\u60f3\u5229\u7528\u53f0\u6e7e\u6765\u523a\u6fc0\u6216\u65bd\u538b\u5317\u4eac\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ea\u6709\u5728\u53f0\u5317\u540c\u610f\u626e\u6f14\u8fd9\u4e00\u89d2\u8272\u65f6\u624d\u80fd\u6210\u7acb\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    3. \u65e0\u8bba\u600e\u4e48\u9009\uff0c\u90fd\u6709\u4ee3\u4ef7<\/strong>\u3002\u62d2\u7edd\u626e\u6f14\u8fd9\u4e2a\u89d2\u8272\uff0c\u53f0\u6e7e\u4fbf\u53ef\u4ece\u98ce\u53e3\u6d6a\u5c16\u4e0a\u62bd\u8eab\u2014\u2014\u7528\u6768\u8363\u6587\u7684\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c”\u8fd9\u4e0d\u662f\u6211\u7684\u95ee\u9898”\u3002\u800c\u82e5\u9009\u62e9\u63a5\u53d7\uff0c\u5bc4\u671b\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u65bd\u538b\u80fd\u8ba9\u4e2d\u56fd”\u5143\u6c14\u5927\u4f24”\u8fdb\u800c\u51fa\u73b0\u673a\u4f1a\uff08\u4ed6\u501f\u7528\u4e86\u674e\u767b\u8f89\u5bf9\u65e5\u672c\u4f5c\u5bb6\u53f8\u9a6c\u8fbd\u592a\u90ce\u6240\u8bf4\u7684”\u7ea2\u6d77\u5206\u5f00”\u7684\u610f\u8c61\uff09\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u573a\u8d4c\u535a\u2014\u2014\u800c\u4e14\u662f\u5371\u9669\u7684\u8d4c\u535a\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u671f\u5f85\u4e2d\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u59cb\u7ec8\u6ca1\u6709\u5230\u6765\uff1a“\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u9879\u653f\u7b56\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u4e00\u53a2\u60c5\u613f\u6216\u5e7b\u60f3\u4e4b\u4e0a\uff0c\u90a3\u53ef\u80fd\u917f\u6210\u60b2\u5267\u3002”<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

      Notably, Yeo separates this from any judgment of Taiwan’s elections themselves, which he calls “a sideshow” \u2014 even a pro-independence winner “cannot start the war,” because only the US and China hold that power, and Washington in practice keeps considerable control over what any Taiwanese leader can do or say abroad (he cites the tightly managed itinerary of Taiwanese leaders during US visits).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6768\u8363\u6587\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e00\u5224\u65ad\u4e0e\u53f0\u6e7e\u9009\u4e3e\u672c\u8eab\u533a\u5206\u5f00\u6765\u2014\u2014\u4ed6\u79f0\u9009\u4e3e\u53ea\u662f”\u914d\u89d2\u620f”\uff1a\u5373\u4fbf\u662f\u4e3b\u5f20\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u5f53\u9009\uff0c\u4e5f”\u65e0\u6cd5\u6311\u8d77\u6218\u4e89”\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u771f\u6b63\u63e1\u6709\u5f00\u6218\u6743\u529b\u7684\u53ea\u6709\u7f8e\u4e2d\u4e24\u56fd\uff1b\u800c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u534e\u76db\u987f\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u4ecd\u80fd\u7ea6\u675f\u53f0\u6e7e\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u51fa\u8bbf\u65f6\u7684\u8a00\u884c\uff08\u4ed6\u4e3e\u4f8b\u8bf4\uff0c\u53f0\u6e7e\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u8bbf\u7f8e\u65f6\u7684\u884c\u7a0b\u5b89\u6392\u4e00\u5411\u53d7\u5230\u4e25\u683c\u9650\u5236\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n\n\n\n

      Related Section: The Multipolar World and the Logic of Chinese Civilization \/ \u76f8\u5173\u8bae\u9898\uff1a\u591a\u6781\u4e16\u754c\u4e0e\u4e2d\u534e\u6587\u660e\u7684\u903b\u8f91<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

      The Taiwan comment doesn’t stand alone \u2014 it’s a single application of a much broader thesis Yeo lays out: the world is transitioning from a US\/Western-dominated order into a multipolar one<\/strong>, driven fundamentally by the acceleration of technology transfer, which lets once-“backward” societies catch up to former masters faster than history’s usual pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u53f0\u6e7e\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\u7684\u8fd9\u6bb5\u53d1\u8a00\u5e76\u975e\u5b64\u7acb\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u5b83\u53ea\u662f\u6768\u8363\u6587\u66f4\u5b8f\u5927\u8bba\u8ff0\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e94\u7528\u5b9e\u4f8b\uff1a\u4e16\u754c\u6b63\u4ece\u7f8e\u56fd\/\u897f\u65b9\u4e3b\u5bfc\u7684\u79e9\u5e8f\uff0c\u8fc7\u6e21\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u591a\u6781\u5316\u7684\u4e16\u754c<\/strong>\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e00\u8f6c\u53d8\u7684\u6839\u672c\u9a71\u52a8\u529b\uff0c\u662f\u79d1\u6280\u4f20\u64ad\u901f\u5ea6\u7684\u52a0\u5feb\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u66fe\u7ecf”\u843d\u540e”\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u80fd\u591f\u4ee5\u8fdc\u8d85\u5386\u53f2\u5e38\u6001\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u8ffd\u8d76\u4e0a\u66fe\u7ecf\u7684”\u5b97\u4e3b”\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      A few of the analytical threads he weaves through the talk:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u4ed6\u5728\u6f14\u8bb2\u4e2d\u7f16\u7ec7\u4e86\u4ee5\u4e0b\u51e0\u6761\u5206\u6790\u4e3b\u7ebf\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n